Showing posts with label Edmonton Rush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Edmonton Rush. Show all posts

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Gavin Prout - the Knighthawk?

Gavin Prout spent two seasons in New York and then six in Colorado, the last five as captain of the Mammoth, averaging 84 points per season. So it was a bit of a shock in Colorado, and throughout the NLL world, when he was traded in 2009 to the Edmonton Rush. He played with the Rush for the 2010 season and about half of 2011 before being traded back to the Mammoth. But something that many people, myself included until recently, don't remember about Prout being traded from the Mammoth to the Rush was that it never happened.

What could have beenProut, along with Andrew Potter, was traded from the Mammoth to the Rochester Knighthawks in 2009 for Ilija Gajic (some draft picks were involved as well). Potter had been sent to the Mammoth from the Knighthawks the previous year in the deal that brought Gary Gait out of retirement. Interesting that a guy that played all of five games in his NLL career was involved in two such significant trades. Anyway, two weeks later, the Knighthawks sent Prout and Dean Hill to the Rush for a first round draft pick. But the fact that Prout was a Knighthawk for a couple of off-season weeks is usually forgotten.

A number of other players also spend time on teams for which they never played. Here are just a few:

After the Boston Blazers folded, Anthony Cosmo and Josh Sanderson were both selected in the dispersal draft by the Minnesota Swarm. Before the first round of the draft had even ended, Sanderson had been traded to the Rock, while Cosmo sat out half of the next season before being traded to the Bandits.

Shawn Williams is another player who, like Sanderson, can measure the amount of time he spent on the Minnesota roster with a stopwatch. In July 2012, Williams was traded from the Rush to the Swarm for two second-round draft picks. The same day, he was sent off with Brendan Doran as well as the #5 overall pick in the 2012 draft and two other 2012 draft picks to Buffalo for the #3 overall pick. That seems to me like an expensive way to move up two positions – and in fact, it really only moved the Swarm up one position since they went from having picks #2, 4, and 5 to having picks #2, 3, and 4.

Paul Rabil might be the only player to have joined two separate organizations consecutively and never play for either of them. But this story begins six months before Rabil got involved. In the summer of 2011, the Wings traded Athan Iannucci, Alex Turner, Brodie MacDonald, and three first round draft picks to the Rush for Brodie Merrill, Dean Hill, Mike McLellan, and a couple of later draft picks. Nooch never signed with the Rush, and a month into the 2012 season, he was traded to the Stealth for Paul Rabil. Rabil also refused to sign with the Rush and sat out the rest of the 2012 season.

Almost a year after the original Iannucci trade, the Rush sent Rabil to the Knighthawks for Jarrett Davis, but Rabil never reported to Rochester either. Only a couple of weeks before the 2013 season began, he was sent to Philadelphia along with Jordan Hall, Joel White, and Robbie Campbell in exchange for Dan Dawson, Paul Dawson, and a first round draft pick. Rabil is now happy in Philadelphia, and I'm pretty sure the Knighthawks were OK with what they got out of the deal.

But not every player was traded to a team they never played for. Here are some players who were drafted by teams they never played for:

  • Ilija Gajic, Rochester, 2009
  • Joel Dalgarno, Toronto, 2009
  • Craig Point, Boston, 2007
  • Ryan Benesch, San Jose, 2006
  • Blaine Manning, Calgary, 2001
  • Geoff Snider, Vancouver, 2001 (he opted to return to university and was drafted again by the Wings in 2006)
  • Tom Marechek, Buffalo, 1992
  • John Tavares, Detroit, 1991 (and not until the third round!)

I'm sure there are plenty of others. Leave a comment if I missed any!

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

2013 NLL season wrap-up

Well, that's it for one of the most exciting and entertaining NLL seasons ever, thanks in part to the parity in the league. Almost every game was unpredictable, and there wasn't a single game all year where anyone would have been honestly shocked if the losing team had won. Incidentally, that's my excuse for finishing below .500 in my predictions.

A lot of interesting things happened in the 2013 season, some of which were expected, some of which were not. Let's take a look at a few of each.

Five things we expected

  1. Parity. As I mentioned above, the parity in the league is unprecedented. The Bandits only won 6 games, but four of them came against the Champions, the Championship runners-up, and the Rock, who had the best record. The team with the best record was ahead of the team with the worst record by only 4 wins (10-6 vs. 6-10), the smallest that number has been since Detroit finished 6-2 and four teams were 3-5 back in 1992.
  2. The Stealth didn't suck. Nobody expected their 2012 season to be as bad as it was, but I'm pretty sure that nobody realistically expected it to happen again.
  3. Garrett Billings cemented himself as one of the top offensive players in the NLL with his second-straight 100-point season.
  4. After one of the best offensive seasons ever, John Grant returned to earth with a pedestrian (for him) 91 points. Matt Vinc
  5. Matt Vinc won his third Goaltender of the Year award. Another few years of this type of performance, and the "best of all time" argument between Watson and Eliuk will become a three-way conversation. In fact, it's almost there now.

Five things we didn't expect

  1. Sophomore slump? Never heard of it. If you look at the top rookies of 2012 – Kevin Crowley, Adam Jones, Jordan MacIntosh, Tyler Carlson, Evan Kirk, Johnny Powless – only Kirk dropped off significantly from his rookie performance. Powless dropped from 50 points to 40, but he had to start sharing the ball with the likes of Dan Dawson and Casey Powell. The rest all stayed about the same or got better.
  2. Getting rid of Casey Powell won't hurt your offense. The Knighthawks averaged 11.1 goals per game before the trade, 11.3 after. Cody Jamieson and Dan Dawson both saw their points/game averages go up to make up for the loss of Powell, Dawson from 4.2 to 5.1, and Jamieson from 5 to 6.3.
  3. Mike Poulin had a distinctly un-Poulin-esque season. His 12.70 GAA was the highest of his career, almost 2.5 points higher than 2012. The only starters who finished with higher GAAs were Evan Kirk and Anthony Cosmo. But his performance in the Roughnecks' 12-11 OT victory over Edmonton at the end of the season was outstanding, and he played well against both the Mammoth and the Stealth in the playoffs. Shawn Evans
  4. Shawn Evans has been a very good player for years, and taking his game to the next level wasn't wholly unexpected. But this year, Evans jumped the next level and went to the one after that. He bested his career high in points by 33 and won the scoring title by 12. His 112 points is tied for the 5th best season ever, putting Evans among the Gaits, Grants, and Tavares'.
  5. The Knighthawks started the year 0-3, were never above .500 at any point, and only two teams scored fewer goals. But they are the Champions. Actually, we should have expected it, since it's almost what they did last year.

So there'll be no more NLL games until at least December when training camps open. Don't worry folks, it's only… um… seven months. (sigh) Until then, we still have the MLL for outdoorsy types, and the MSL and WLA for people who like sweating in arenas in July. There may or may not be other American indoor leagues as well, such as NALL, PLL, MILA, and possibly others; so many of them started up so fast I kind of lost track of which ones still exist.

So enjoy your summer and fall, whether it's filled with lacrosse or not! NLL Chatter will be more or less quiet over the summer, but we'll publish the odd story as things unfold: the new CBA, trades, the entry draft, rule changes, the 2014 schedule, things like that. And we'll be back next season with the usual mix of relevance and irreverence. See you then!

Monday, April 29, 2013

2013 NLL Award winners

Every year the IL Indoor writing staff submit their picks for the annual NLL awards, and here are mine. Note that these are not picks for who I think will win, they're picks for who I think should win.

Offensive player of the year – Shawn Evans

Runners-up: Garrett Billings, Rhys Duch, Callum Crawford

Billings had almost as great a season in 2013 as he did in 2012, and Duch set personal records in both goals (leading the league) and assists. Crawford only had 4 games (out of 14) with less than 6 points – none of them after March 3 – and had six straight games of 8+ points. But Evans had them all beat before he even began his final game. Evans had five games with 10+ points, more than John Grant had during his record-setting 2012 season, while only Crawford and Dan Dawson even had two.

Transition player of the year – Jesse Gamble

Runners-up: Geoff Snider, Jeremy Thompson, Brad Self

Is this a bit of a homer pick? Possibly, but I really thought Gamble had a hell of a year. He played strong defense, ran like the wind, scored a bunch of goals (including two on the power-play), and led the team in loose balls.

I thought about picking Jordan MacIntosh, who will probably win the award, but decided against it for the same reason I didn't think Jeff Shattler should have won this award two years ago – he's not really a transition player. He's an excellent player, no question, and as good as he was, he even stepped up his game when Andrew Suitor went down with a season-ending injury. But he played a lot more shifts on offense than he did defense. In the division semi-final game, MacIntosh played as much offense as Benesch or Crawford did. Gamble is a true transition player.

Defensive player of the year  – Kyle Rubisch

Runners-up: Chris Corbeil, Scott Self

It sounds like Kyle Rubisch might be the winner of this award every year for the foreseeable future. The word I hear most often to describe his play is "beast".

Goaltender of the year – Matt Vinc

Runners-up: Brandon Miller, Tyler Richards, Nick Rose

If not for Matt Vinc, the Knighthawks might have been hitting the links early, not the Bandits. To have a goalie with the best GAA and the best save percentage in the league and still finish at .500 tells you how bad their offense was. Similarly, as one Wings fan put it, the Wings would be 1-15 without Brandon Miller. I'm not sure it would have been that bad but the Wings had a similar problem to the Knighthawks – outstanding goaltending, but almost no offense to speak of.

Rookie of the year – Mark Matthews

Runners-up: Kiel Matisz, Shayne Jackson, Dhane Smith, Curtis Knight

From a stats point of view, it was closer than you might have thought. Matthews had 4.31 points per game, while Jackson and Matisz had 4.00 and 3.94 respectively. But Matthews turned the Rush's mediocre offense from last year into the third highest-scoring in the league, and that's after losing Aaron Wilson, Scott Evans, and Shawn Williams. Obviously Matthews himself didn't make up the difference entirely, but he forced opposing defenses to focus on him. This opened things up for Ryan Ward, Corey Small, and Zack Greer, all of whom increased their point totals over 2012.

Unsung player of the year – Cory Vitarelli

Runners-up: Kasey Beirnes, Jay Thorimbert, Brodie MacDonald

When you think of the offensive stars on the Knighthawks, you think Jamieson, Dawson, Powless, Accursi, Point, even Keogh, but Vitarelli doesn't always spring to mind. But he was third in team scoring, put up at least a point in every game he played this year, and scored some of the prettiest goals we saw all season. Beirnes has gotten more recognition in the last year or two for his hard work playing behind big-name guys like Doyle, Billings, and Sanderson, but he's been doing that for years. Jay Thorimbert had almost identical face-off numbers to Bob Snider, which is impressive in itself. Thorimbert split face-off duties in 2012 with Brandon Francis and Jeremy Thompson, but became the Bandits' only face-off man this year – and increased their team face-off win percentage from 48.3% to 59.7%. Brodie MacDonald only played in three games this year, but put in at least 20 minutes in each, and finished with a GAA of around 8 and a save percentage of 80%. Having that kind of backup goalie behind you has to be a great confidence boost for both Aaron Bold and Derek Keenan.

Coach of the year – Troy Cordingley

Runners-up: Chris Hall, Derek Keenan

The Rock were the most consistent team this year, in a league where many teams looked unstoppable one week and terrible the next. Chris Hall showed how important he is to the Stealth, bringing them back from their brutal 2012 season, much of which was played without him, to second place in the West.

GM of the year – Derek Keenan

Runners-up: John Arlotta, Curt Styres

Drafting Mark Matthews wasn't the master stroke – every GM would have done that. But in the off-season, Keenan retooled the offense, turning them from the worst in the league to the third-highest scoring – and managed to do this despite losing Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, and Scott Evans. Keenan also turned Paul Rabil, a player who never played for him and wasn't going to, into Jarrett Davis.

MVP – Shawn Evans

Shawn EvansRunners-up: Garrett Billings, Callum Crawford, Matt Vinc

Evans had an outstanding year. He led the league in both assists and points, almost setting records in both, and beat his next closest teammate by almost fifty points. He had almost exactly the season Garrett Billings had a year ago, and Billings was my choice for MVP then. How close were their seasons?

G A Pts PPG LB Shots SOG
Billings 2012 32 82 114 10 74 195 131
Evans 2013 32 80 112 12 69 186 139

Evans had the same number of goals as he did last season but picked up 33 more assists. Just to cap it all off, Evans scored the overtime winner in the last game of the season to clinch the Western division for the Roughnecks.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Division semi-final picks

I went 2-2 in the final week of the season, bringing me to 33-39. Not bad, better than last year, but still not up to the level of my IL Indoor colleagues, all but one of whom finished at or above .500. Only Ty Pilson finished with a losing record, and he was still two games ahead of me. I will need to step up my "make wild guesses" game.

What better way to do that than with four games that could easily go either way? I really should be used to that since that's been the case in the NLL pretty much all season long.

Regular season record: 33-39 (.458)
Playoff record: 0-0 (.000)

Game

Comments

Pick

PHI @ ROC Which Rochester team shows up? The one that scored 20 against Philly and then 15 against Buffalo the next night, or the one that 14 total against Buffalo and Philly over the next two weeks? I'm gonna say neither since I don't see this being a high-scoring game, but I think Rochester will win it. The Knighthawks offense started to play better once they traded Casey Powell and while both goalies can steal a game, Vinc is my choice for Goaltender of the Year. Knighthawks5_thumb
COL @ CAL Tye Belanger does seem to be the real deal in net, but it's his first season. I honestly don't know if "playoff experience" is a real thing that actually affects how you play, but lots of people seem to think so, and Tye doesn't have any of it. That said, the Roughnecks might be without Dane Dobbie and Scott Ranger. It's not like there's nobody else on Calgary that can score, but it puts a lot more pressure on Dickson, Shattler, and Veltman to produce. Roughnecks
EDM @ WAS The Rush have been the most complete team in the second half of this season. They gave up the second fewest goals in the league (fewest on the road), and their scoring is 3rd in the league (2nd on the road). They were 7-1 away from Edmonton this year. They also remember how close they got last year… Rush
MIN @ TOR Of all the teams Toronto could have faced in the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota would have been last on my list of preferences. The two teams played twice this year, each team winning 13-12 at home. Nick Rose better have a good night though, since we've seen that the Swarm can have an explosive offense, particularly Callum Crawford. Tyler Carlson is another potential game-stealer. I'm still going with the Rock, but this will be a tough win. Rock

Friday, April 19, 2013

Week 16 picks

In the penultimate week of the regular season, I went 3-2 – extending my .500-or-better streak to 6 weeks. I can't hit .500 overall this year – 4-for-4 this weekend will put me at 35-37, or .486. On the upside, the worst I can do this year is 31-41 or .431, which is what my prediction record was last year.

People have worried that eight of nine teams making the playoffs means there are fewer "meaningful games", but nothing could be further from the truth this weekend. All the games have playoff implications for all the teams – even the Rock, who aren't playing.

Buffalo is fighting for their playoff lives, as are Rochester and Colorado. In fact, Buffalo and Rochester are fighting each other for their playoff lives. If Rochester wins, Buffalo's out. If Buffalo wins, Rochester's fate depends on the Mammoth-Swarm game. The Mammoth can clinch with a win, but also if Rochester wins.

The rest of the teams are playing for their playoff seedings – I think the Swarm and Mammoth are the only teams who can't host a playoff game. I won't go over all the possibilities in the west since they're complicated. They're all listed on nll.com anyway. Suffice it to say that all the remaining games are crucial and nobody's going to be mailing it in this weekend.

If I get my picks right, we'll have Colorado crossing over to play the Rock and the Wings playing in Rochester. In the west, Edmonton will host Minnesota (with the Swarm ready for some payback for last year's embarrassing playoff loss) and Calgary will play in Washington.

Record: 31-37 (.456)

Game

Comments

Pick

ROC @ BUF Who shows up this weekend – the Bandits from last week or the Bandits from the previous six? Either way, Matt Vinc is in the running for Goaltender of the Year and as much as I'd hate to see John Tavares finish his career (not that that is a sure thing either) on a losing note, I'm giving this one to the Knighthawks. Knighthawks5
CAL @ EDM The Rush have only won twice at home this year, but Calgary will be without Dane Dobbie. The Rush would love the "first overall" title to go along with their first-ever home playoff game(s). I think Bold returns from an off week to shut down the Roughnecks – at least, as much as they can be shut down. As a Rock fan, I'd love to see the Rush lose this one so the Rock can clinch first overall, but I'm picking Edmonton. Rush4
COL @ MIN The Swarm are averaging over 16 goals in their last six games, and Callum Crawford has been the league's best player over the last several weeks. The Mammoth have been playing fairly well, beating the Rush and Wings in recent weeks, and they beat the Swarm back in February, but they're no match for the new and improved Swarm. Swarm
PHI @ WAS I took forever to make this pick and changed my mind a few times. Both teams have strong goaltending but have been inconsistent all season. But the Stealth have a better offense, and if Iannucci returns this weekend, he'll be itching to show his stuff after being benched for two weeks. I know they're 4-5 when I pick them and 4-2 when I don't, but I have to go with the Stealth again. Stealth4

Friday, April 12, 2013

Week 15 picks

3-3 record last week thanks to Tye Belanger keeping the Rush offense to only 7 goals and the Wings remembering how to score goals. The only way I can finish at or above .500 this season is to go 8-1 or 9-0 in the last two weeks, so that is the plan. If it doesn't happen, it's not my fault – blame the players for not going along with the plan.

Record: 28-35 (.444)

Game

Comments

Pick

ROC @ CAL Rochester will very likely make the playoffs, which wasn't certain only a few weeks ago. Calgary already has but would like a home playoff game. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 (for Calgary, it's actually 3 of their last 4). Matt Vinc hasn't given up as many as 12 in a game since January 19 and has held the Wings, Rock, Bandits, and Stealth to single-digits since then. Mike Poulin has only kept opponents below 12 four times this season. Knighthawks
MIN @ COL Minnesota seems to have become the team I thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season, though it took them a long time to get there. Callum Crawford is on fire (7+ points in 5 straight games) and Tyler Carlson has a GAA of 6.00 and save % of 88% in his last two starts. Since Minnesota keeps swapping starting goalies and Kirk lost in Philly last week, this is Carlson's game. Swarm
TOR @ PHI The Rock really want that top seed overall, but the Wings aren't guaranteed a playoff spot quite yet, and they always seem to give the Rock trouble. When Brandon Miller is "on", he's almost untouchable (though you could say that about almost all of the starting goalies in the league), and with Mundorf back from injury, the Wings offense just got stronger. The Rock currently have the best record in the league, so picking them is not a homer pick. I'm sticking to that. Rock
BUF @ WAS The Bandits seem to have lost interest in the 2013 season, while the Stealth still have a chance at a home playoff game. Buffalo is this close to being eliminated from the playoffs, so either they'll pour on the energy this weekend in an attempt to stay in the race, or they'll fold, figuring they have no chance. I didn't see much fight in them last week or the week before, so I don't expect much this weekend. Stealth
ROC @ EDM The Rush are 1-5 at home and 7-1 on the road, so maybe they're not playing for home-floor advantage in the playoffs. The Rush looked too good in their games against Buffalo and Toronto the other week to bet against them. Every team had bad games, which is what they had against Colorado last week, but I think they'll bounce back. Rush

Thursday, April 11, 2013

NLL Annual Award short lists and prediction recap

There are still a couple of weeks left in the season, but here are some early player award possibilities as well as a look at my predictions from the beginning of the season. Some of them were pretty close, others… not so much.

The front-runners are the few people, in no particular order, who I think have the best shot of winning the award. For the most part, I haven't made my actual selections yet, so these are just my short-lists. In most cases, I put a dark horse as well; someone who probably won't win the award but should be considered.

MVP

Prediction: Dan Dawson, Garrett Billings. Dawson has been good but not outstanding. Billings has been outstanding.

Front-runners: Garrett Billings, Shawn Evans, Mark Matthews

Dark horse: Callum Crawford

Goaltender of the Year

Prediction: Anthony Cosmo, Aaron Bold. Cosmo hasn't been great, though I wouldn't blame the Bandits lousy season on him. Bold is 3rd among starters in GAA but 8th in save %. He has been very good, though not as good as last year.

Front-runners: Matt Vinc, Nick Rose, Tyler Richards

Dark horse: Tye Belanger has been excellent though has half the minutes of the other starters (other than the Swarm's dynamic duo).

Transition Player of the Year

Prediction: Jordan MacIntosh, Paul Rabil. MacIntosh is on my short list. Rabil has been good but not Tranny of the Year good.

Front-runners: Geoff Snider, Jordan MacIntosh, Jesse Gamble, Jeremy Thompson, Jordan Hall

Dark horse: Brad Self

Defensive Player of the Year

I'll admit it: I suck when it comes to evaluating defensemen. Part of it is because I'm a stats guy, and there are no really useful stats for defenders. But a lot of it is that I have no formal training – I'm self-taught in the art of watching lacrosse. I'm a fan who's never actually played the game. When I'm watching a game, I'm watching the offensive players and the goalie. I will notice when a defender makes a great play or if a team seems to hear the shot clock buzzer an awful lot (implying a good defensive unit), but I don't generally notice individual defenders. That said, I have made a point to watch Kyle Rubisch and Chris Corbeil because you hear about them so much, and Sandy Chapman has always been one of my favourite Rock players. I remember watching Paul Dawson shut people down (and occasionally beat the snot out of them) with the Blazers.

It's weird though – I can look at a list of transition players and have general feelings on how they've been playing without looking at the stats. I have no idea how many points Brad Self has, or Jordan Hall, or Jeremy Thompson, but I know they're having good seasons. I have no such impressions with pure defenders.

Prediction: Kyle Rubisch, Paul Dawson

Front-runners: Kyle Rubisch, Chris Corbeil, Paul Dawson, Scott Self

Dark horse: I got nothing.

Rookie of the Year

Prediction: Mark Matthews, Kiel Matisz. Woo, nailed it on this one. Unlike everyone else who also predicted Matthews as ROY.

Front-runners: Mark Matthews, Kiel Matisz, Tye Belanger, Mitch McMichael, Kyle Belton, Curtis Knight, Dhane Smith

Dark horse: Anyone but Matthews, really.

Update: Can't believe I forgot Dhane Smith on the original list. Also, apparently Tye Belanger is not considered a rookie.

Les Bartley Award

Prediction: Troy Cordingley, Joe Sullivan. Again, nailed it.

Front-runners: Troy Cordingley, Chris Hall, Joe Sullivan, Derek Keenan

Dark horse: Mike Hasen if the Knighthawks continue playing well in the last two weeks.

GM of the Year

Prediction: Curt Styres, Steve Dietrich. The Knighthawks and Bandits both made significant offseason moves and I thought at least one of them would be successful. The offseason Rochester moves didn't seem to make the team appreciably better, but the Powell-for-Sullivan, Self, and Purves moves were all good. The Bandits moves made the team worse and other than Dhane Smith, didn't really set them up for the future either (though the Cosmo trade that lost them next year's first round pick was Kilgour, not Dietrich).

Front-runners: Derek Keenan, John Arlotta

Dark horse: Johnny Mouradian. Dawson+Dawson for Rabil+Hall isn't nearly the disaster I thought it might be.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Week 14 picks

Last week I went 3-2, my fourth straight week of .500-or-better predictions. I guess I'm settling down as we get deeper into the season. You know what they say, particularly in the NLL – you don't want to peak early. Much better to get hot near the end of the season. Right, 2012 Knighthawks?

Record: 25-32 (.439)

Game

Comments

Pick

WAS @ CAL Tough one. Washington can clinch a playoff spot by beating the Roughnecks, so they're hungry. The Roughnecks know they were one T-Rich penalty away from losing to the Stealth last weekend, and they're playing to clinch a home date. I'll take Calgary at home, but in a close one. Roughnecks
COL @ EDM How can you bet against the Rush, the way they've been playing? Sure they're 1-4 at home, but haven't played there in over a month and have since won five straight including beating both the Rock and Roughnecks handily. Rush
BUF @ MIN The Swarm have won their last two by 7 and 9 goals. The Bandits have lost five in a row. The Bandits certainly have the talent to win this game, and you'd think that having their backs to the wall playoff-wise would spur them on to play better. But I didn't see that last week in Toronto. Coach Darris Kilgour questioned their heart last year, but this year might be worse. Swarm
PHI @ ROC Rochester seems to have found their groove after trading Casey Powell. Not that he was the cause of their problems, but moving him freed up the rest of their offense. That seems to have helped, adding Scott Self made a pretty good defense better, and Matt Vinc has been great all year. If anyone other than the Rush are getting hot at the right time, it might be the Knighthawks. Knighthawks
MIN @ PHI I had little confidence in the Wings before the season began, and there have been times where they've surprised me with how well they've played. But they've also had 20 goals scored against them twice this year and other than their early-season win over the Rock, all of their wins have come against teams below them in the standings. Like I said before, I'm still bullish on the Swarm – and that was before they destroyed the Wings last week. Swarm
ROC @ TOR Rochester played well in their game against the Rock last weekend, and as I said they seem to be getting hot at the right time. But the Rock really wanted to clinch the Eastern division title last weekend and the Knighthawks prevented that. They won't want to let that happen again, particularly in their own building. Rock

Monday, March 25, 2013

Game report: Edmonton 17 @ Toronto 12

In my preview of the Edmonton Rush, I picked them to finish last in the West – not because I thought they were a last place team, but because there was so much uncertainty. Would Aaron Bold continue his strong play from 2012? Would the defense continue to dominate? Would Mark Matthews turn out to be the star everyone thought he would be? And after a 1-4 start, it looked like the Rush might have to wait at least another year to get back to the Championship game. But they've now won seven of their last eight games including five in a row, and have looked pretty dominant doing so. Sunday's game against the Rock was no exception.

The first quarter might have been the Rock's worst quarter of the season. The offense was sloppy, passes were missing their targets by several feet, lots of fancy over-the-shoulder passes were made to teammates not expecting them, and Nick Rose did not have his best game. Two minutes into the second, Rose was pulled for Zach Boychuk and the Rock were down 8-2. Shots after the first quarter were 22-8 for the Rush. Boychuk allowed another goal fairly quickly but then settled down and held the Rush scoreless for the next 12 minutes. Boychuk was hot and cold the rest of the way – he made a couple of holy-cow-how-did-he-stop-that saves, but let in a few softies as well. Boychuk is a much more athletic goalie than Rose; while Rose seems to move as little as possible to make the saves, Boychuk moves around a lot more. Not that either style is better or worse – whatever works.

The Rock's play did improve over the next few quarters but still not up to the level of the Rush, who were simply dominant. Matthews didn't have a huge game stat-wise, three goals and an assist, but he anchored the offense. And "anchor" is a pretty accurate description of this big guy – he can plow through defenders like they're not there. His presence forced the Rock to focus more on him and allow the rest of the Rush forwards some good looks, but it was their defenders and transition guys that provided much of the scoring. Chris Corbeil and Kyle Rubisch, two of the best defenders in the game, contributed at both ends of the floor with two goals each, and Mydske, Dilks, LaFontaine, and Thompson each scored as well.

Jeremy ThompsonI've always liked Jeremy Thompson as a player. He can score, he can defend, he's fast, he can fight (as we saw – see below), he can do faceoffs, and he has a very cool twitter profile picture (right). On Sunday, he displayed another skill: getting under the skin of his opponents, which directly resulted in at least two power plays for the Rush. On the opening face-off of the second quarter, he said or did something to Patrick Merrill. From what I saw, the ref blew the whistle to start the quarter and then immediately signaled that the Rock should have possession. Merrill suddenly walked away from the ball and started cross-checking Thompson across the chest. Thompson simply walked backwards taking the hits until Merrill was given a penalty. Not a smart play by Merrill. Then just a few minutes later, Thompson said or did something to Scott Evans, who dropped his gloves and went after him. Again, Thompson did nothing and Evans went to the penalty box. To add insult to injury, Thompson himself scored on the resulting power play. Surely after watching the Bandits implode year after year after year by taking stupid penalties, the Rock would have learned to let the other team do that and not to do it themselves. Actually the Rock are usually pretty good for keeping their heads on straight, but not on this night.

All in all, it was a rather ugly game for the Rock. But they ran into a hot Edmonton Rush team, who have replaced the Rock at the top of Brian Shanahan's power rankings list. I saw a few tweets before the game that this game might have been a Champion's Cup preview. If so, the Rock will have to keep their heads on straight and clean up (or cut down on) the fancy passing in the rematch.

Other game notes:

  • The Edmonton defense was very strong. There were times that I was waiting for the whistle and the "too many men" call, because there were seven or eight defenders out there. But no, there were only five.
  • In one play in the second quarter, Kyle Rubisch approached a group of three players all huddled together and checked them all at once, knocking two of them down.
  • After being pulled in the second quarter, Nick Rose sat on the bench for the rest of the game with his helmet on.
  • The fight: in the third quarter, Scott Johnston grabbed Jeremy Thompson and wouldn't let him go. He held Thompson by the facemask and eventually pulled his helmet off. Thompson looked like he had no real interest in the fight, but after Johnston finally threw the first actual punch, Thompson pulled Johnston's mask off and got a few punches in before Johnston suplex'ed him to the floor. Decision: Thompson.
  • The Rock's transition game (defense-to-offense) is one of the best they've had in years. But their offense-to-defense is a bit more of a problem. There was a fair bit of lollygagging by the offense on their way back to the bench. You know what that makes them? Lollygaggers.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Week 12 picks

For the second straight week, I was 2-2 with my picks. Starting out under .500 and continually getting .500 will get you towards .500, but you'll never get there. That's math. Luckily, there are 3 games this week so I won't be going .500. Let's hope for a 2-1 or 3-0 week to bring up that average!

Record: 20-29 (.408)

Game

Comments

Pick

EDM @ BUF Edmonton has won 5 of 6 and scored 14+ goals in four of them. Buffalo has lost three straight but only really got crushed in one of them. Given the events of the past couple of weeks, I'm wondering if Bandits will act like angels this weekend (not wanting to lose more people to suspensions) and stay out of the penalty box. If they can do that, they stand a good chance of beating the Rush. But notice who I'm picking. Rush
COL @ CAL This pick is closer than I would have thought a few weeks ago. The powerhouse Roughnecks against the lowly Mammoth? Not so much. The 'Necks have had defensive troubles all year and are dead last in goals allowed, though they're first in goals scored. The Mammoth are coming of two solid wins against Buffalo and have growing confidence in their young goaltenders. But I still gotta go with Calgary though it's my least confident pick this week. Roughnecks
EDM @ TOR I saw Mark Matthews play in a pre-season exhibition game in Toronto and had to agree with all the experts saying that Matthews was going to be a force in the NLL. Obviously they were right, and I'm looking forward to watching him again, not to mention defensive stud Kyle Rubisch. But the Rock are on a roll (man, that joke just never gets old, does it?), and three wins in their final five games will give them their best record since 2005. Since this is the best Rock team since 2005 (including a team that won a championship), that would be fitting. Rock

Friday, March 15, 2013

Week 11 picks

I tried something different this past week since the previous weeks hadn't really gone so well. I reversed my picks – if I thought team A would win, I picked team B. I did this for all four games and after starting 0-2 (and thinking this was the dumbest idea I'd had in years), I went 2-0 in the last two games, thus ending the weekend 2-2 and rendering my experiment pointless.

This week I'm back to my regular picking strategy. Next year, I think it would be interesting to actually flip a coin each week and see how many people the coin can beat.

Record: 18-27 (.400)

Game

Comments

Pick

BUF @ COL This one will be weird, since with all the injuries, trades, and suspensions, the entire game will be Tye Belanger and Anthony Cosmo lobbing the ball back and forth to each other, with John Grant and Mark Steenhuis trying to intercept the passes. Steve Dietrich will replace Cosmo in the fourth just because now he can. Bandits
WAS @ MIN Stealth fans yell at me when I pick the Stealth, which I guess is understandable given my overall record. But I've picked Washington to win 7 times this season, and they've won 4 of those games. So when I pick them, they win 57% of the time. That's the highest percentage of any team in the league. You're welcome. Stealth
TOR @ PHI Brandon Miller will not be playing this weekend (unless he appeals his suspension), so backup Kevin Croswell will be starting. But facing the backup goalie isn't always the good news that you might think. Last year, the Rock faced Washington's backup goalie when Tyler Richards was injured and he played a great game, giving the Stealth the win. That backup goalie was Kevin Croswell. Rock
EDM @ ROC Rochester now has Purves and Sullivan on their D – but both are suspended. They've also added defensive stud Scott Self who is not. They'll be without Casey Powell, which I think is a good thing for their offense overall, but it might take a bit of time to reorganize. Edmonton has scored 14+ goals in 4 of the past 5 games and have won all four. Rush

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

NLL mid-season report: West division

The East consists of one really good team, a couple of good ones and one struggling, but the west is much more even. Last year we had two great teams, two good teams, and the Stealth. This year it's more like five pretty good teams. Nobody is head and shoulders above the rest, and nobody is terrible – not even the last place Mammoth. Blah blah parity blah blah…

 

Roughnecks Calgary Roughnecks

Offense: A+

First in goals scored per game by more than a full goal. There are two Roughnecks in the top ten in scoring including #1 and five in the top twenty-one. Averaging 1.2 shorthanded goals per game. Have only scored less than 11 goals once, and they won that game. Scored 16+ four times in ten games. Best offense in the league – only the Toronto Rock is close.

Defense: C

7th in goals allowed per game, so they're winning lots of high-scoring games. Only given up less than 10 twice, but have given up 16+ in each of the last four games and 15 in one other (though they won two of those). Poulin hasn't looked like Poulin – in Calgary's last three losses, he's allowed 16 goals on 48 shots, 13 on 46, and 14 on 37. He's 7th among starters in GAA and 9th in Save %.

Overall: A

Still my pick to win the West, though I'm reconsidering. After coming up with grades for the Rush, I had to think about which of the two I would rank higher. I eventually settled on giving each of them an A.

 

Mammoth Colorado Mammoth

Offense: D

Tied with the Knighthawks for 7th in goals per game. Grant is tied for 7th in points, then Prout at 16th. In terms of points per game, Grant is 3rd, Prout 13th, and Jones 17th. Of their top 10 scorers in 2012, 6 of them are down in points/game this year, two (MacLeod, McBride, Coates) are slightly up, and one (Hopcroft) is gone.

You couldn't expect Junior's production to stay at the 8.3 points per game he had last year (he's down to 5.8), but as he's dropped, so has just about everyone else. Derek Hopcroft was traded for a 5th round pick and is on the Bandits' practice roster and playing in CLax. Jamie Shewchuk is sitting at home. First round draft pick Colton Clark has played in one game. They've been so focused on their goaltending situation that they have done nothing to shake up their offense. They're just not clicking this year. This was the top scoring team in the league last season.

Defense: D-

Dead last in goals allowed per game with 13.8. They're way worse at home (14.2) than on the road (13). They released Chris Levis after a terrible start and gave Matt Roik the keys. Then they released him and are trying Minnesota's rookie-twin-terror strategy – Lewis and Belanger had a combined 30 minutes of NLL experience before this season. It worked for the Swarm last year, though not so much this year. Can it save the Mammoth's season? Seems like a long shot.

Overall: D-

At the halfway point, there are no two ways about it: the Mammoth are the worst team in the league. But they're not that different personnel-wise from the contending team they were last year. A little confidence and they could start winning but they need the wins to get the confidence.

 

Rush Edmonton Rush

Offense: A

Wow, this Mark Matthews kid just came out of nowhere! Who saw this coming? Oh wait, everybody did. Matthews leads the league in goals scored and is tied for 7th in points. The team is 2nd in goals per game and has three players in the top 13 scorers. When have you been able to say that about the Rush before? Matthews is the offensive star the Rush have never had, and he's turned a decent offense into a great one. The Rush have scored 18 twice, 15 twice (though they lost one) and 14 twice.

Defense: A

2rd in goals allowed per game. The Rush are giving up less than 10 goals per game in away games. They've given up 10 or fewer goals in six games out of ten. Aaron Bold is 4th among starters in GAA, though only 8th in save %.

Overall: A

Last year, the Rush were decent offense and great defense. This year the defense is just as good but the offense is so much better.

 

Swarm Minnesota Swarm

Offense: B-

5th in goals per game. They've scored less than 10 goals in a game only three times. Ryan Benesch is 6th in points per game, Callum Crawford is 8th (but has missed 2 games), Shayne Jackson is 28th and Kiel Matisz is 30th. The next player is Jordan MacIntosh way down at 50th so it seems that the Big Four do pretty much all the scoring.

Defense: D

The Swarm are 6th in goals allowed per game; only Colorado and Calgary are higher. Strangely, the Swarm have given up an average of 2 more goals per game at home than on the road. The experiment with two young goalies that worked so well last year isn't going so well this year. Both Evan Kirk and Tyler Carlson have GAA over 14, ranking them 9th (Carlson) and 10th (Kirk) among starters, and they are 6th (Carlson) and 7th (Kirk) in save percentage.

Overall: C+

I expected a lot from the Swarm this year – I picked them to finish second in the west. Right now they're fourth and with captain Andrew Suitor out for the year, I have to wonder if the Swarm are already done. I was on a roundtable last week with the guys from LaxDirt.com and most of the panel believed that the loss of Suitor will be too much for this young team to handle and that they'll be the team that finishes out of the playoffs. I'm not sure I'm ready to write the team off quite yet, but with all he does for the team, Suitor will be a tough guy to replace.

 

Stealth Washington Stealth

Offense: B

Right in the middle, at 4th in goals per game. I was about to say that "Rhys Duch is having a great year" but when I look over his points per game averages over his career, I found this:

    Season Points Points per game
    2009 89 5.56
    2010 86 5.38
    2011 90 5.63
    2012 (14 games) 79 5.64
    2013 (10 games) 57 5.70

Look at the points per game – talk about Mr. Consistency. Duch missed two games in 2012 and his total extrapolates to 90 points over 16 games, and this year he's on a pace for 91. So yes, Duch is having a great year but not significantly better than his previous great years.

Duch is fourth in the league in points per game, while Iannucci and Ratcliff are 21st and 24th respectively. Cliff Smith is having a career year – he has 32 points in 10 games so far. He started the season with 44 career points in 33 games over four seasons.

Defense: B-

Also right in the middle, 4th in goals allowed per game. In their four losses, they've allowed 18, 15, 15, and 7 goals. OK, we'll give the defense a pass on that last one. Tyler Richards is having a much better season than last year, with a GAA lower by more than two. Last year, Richards' GAA was twelfth among starters last year. Twelfth is not great in a 9-team league. This year, he's second. Nick Patterson had a 16.81 GAA but was released last week, replaced with former Mammoth Matt Roik.

Overall: A-

The goal for the Stealth in 2013 was (a) forget 2012 and (b) win Championship. Perhaps they thought about it in the other order but I think (a) had to be done before (b) was possible. At 5-4 and second in the West, they haven't clinched a playoff berth yet but I think they've been successful in getting (a) accomplished. But (b) will be a bigger challenge.

Similar to the Bandits, their overall grade is higher than their offensive or defensive grades. Can't argue with first in the West, though given how the Rush have been playing and how the Roughnecks should be playing, I'm not sure I'd count on the Stealth still being in first at the end of the season.

Monday, March 4, 2013

The NLL Pronunciation Guide v2.0

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article on the NLL Blog listing a bunch of NLL players with difficult-to-pronounce names and how to say them correctly. Apparently it is not yet required reading for NLL play-by-play guys, since I still frequently hear names being mispronounced. But there are a number of new players in the league now, so it's time for an update. Some of these have been confirmed by the players themselves via twitter – thanks to Frankie Scigliano, Jaeden Gastaldo, Kurtis Wagar, and Neil Tyacke for responding and confirming how to say their names properly.

I've grouped them by team and alphabetically.

Buffalo

Chad Culp – CHAD CULP
John Harasym – HAIR-a-sim.
Mat Giles – JYLES
Alex Kedoh Hill - KEE-dough
Tracey Kelusky – kuh-LUH-skee. Not kuh-LOO-skee.
Steve Priolo – pree-O-lo
Jimmy Purves – PURR-vis
John Tavares – If you can't say his last name, you are obviously not a lacrosse fan. Why are you reading this article? But for completeness, it's tuh-VAR-ez.
Jay Thorimbert – I would have expected THOR-im-bear but I believe it's THOR-im-bert.
Dhane Smith – DANE
Mark Steenhuis – STAIN-house
Kurtis Wagar – WAY-ger. Attention Buffalo announcers: not WAG-ner.

Philadelphia

Kevin Buchanan – byu-CAN-in
CJ Costabile – COST-a-bull
Pat Heim – HIGHm
Paul Rabil – RAY-bull
Brian Tueber – TOOB-er
Drew Westervelt – WEST-er-velt
Chad Wiedmaier – Could not get confirmation. I'd have said WEED-myer but the NLL Pronunciation Guide* says it's weed-MAY-er.

* – Yes, the NLL Pronunciation Guide is a real thing, though there are a few mistakes in it. No idea if this is one of them.

Rochester

Mike Accursi – uh-CUR-see
Stephen Keogh – KEY-o
Ian Llord – la-LORD. No, I'm not serious. It's just LORD.
Matt Vinc – Like VINCE, not VINK
Cory Vitarelli – VIT-a-RELL-ee

Toronto

Kasey Beirnes – BEERns
Stephan Leblanc – STEFF-in la-BLONK
Brendan Thenhaus – I had TEN-house originally but I believe it's TAIN-house. Like Steenhuis without the first 'S'.

Calgary

Dane Dobbie – DOUGH-bee. Not like Dobby.
Joe Resatarits – res-a-TARE-its
Frankie Scigliano – SHIL-ee-ANN-o
Geoff Snider – SNY-der. Not SHNY-der.
Kaleb Toth – KAY-leb TOE-th. My biggest pet peeve – he played 11 seasons in Calgary and I still hear people (even Calgary announcers!) talk about Kaleb TAW-th.

Colorado

Joey Cupido – cuh-PEE-dough
Ilija Gajic – ILL-ee-ya GUY-ch
John Gallant – gull-ANT
Jaeden Gastaldo – JAY-den guh-STALL-dough
Chet Koneczny – kon-EZ-nee
Eric Martin – Just like it looks, presumably. I asked a Colorado fan and he just lowered his head and whispered "We do not speak his name."
Sean Pollock – SHAWN POLL-ick
Creighton Reid – CRAY-ton REED

Edmonton

Chris Corbeil – cor-BEEL
Brett Mydske – MID-skee

Minnesota

Mitch Belisle – buh-LYLE
Ryan Benesch – buh-NESH
Nic Bilic – Nick BIL-ich. Oddly, Jake Elliott (Swarm play-by-play guy) acknowledges that he knows this but says it "BIL-ik" anyway.
Callum Crawford – CAL-um. Attention Edmonton announcers: not CAY-lum
Alex Crepinsek – CREP-in-sek
Kiel Matisz – Just like it looks. (Sigh) OK, fine. It's KYLE muh-TEEZ
Corbyn Tao – COR-bin TOW (last name rhymes with COW). Attention Washington announcer: not TAY-o.

Washington

Rhys Duch – REES DUTCH
Billy Hostrawser – HOS-trouser
Athan Iannucci – EYE-uh-NOOCH-ee
Justin Pychel – PITCH-el
Bob Snider – SNY-der. Remarkably similar to that of Geoff Snider.
Neil Tyacke – TY-ack. Rhymes with kayak.

Non-players

Steve Bermel - BURR-mull. Rhymes with "thermal". Bandits writer for IL Indoor.
Jamie Dawick – DOW-ick. (DOW rhymes with COW like Corbyn Tao. Sounds like that sentence should be in a rap song somewhere) Owner of the Rock.
Marisa Ingemi - muh-RISS-uh in-JEM-ee. Runs the show over at InLacrosseWeTrust.com.
Darris Kilgour – DARRIS KILL-gore. Not DAR-ee-us. Buffalo head coach.
Johnny Mouradian – moor-RAD-ee-an. Philadelphia GM & head coach.
Graeme Perrow – GRAY-um PEAR-o. The most knowledgeable lacrosse mind of our generation whose first name is Graeme. Or at least in the top ten of Graeme's.
Grant Spies – SPEEZ. NLL ref.
Tim Then – THEN. I dunno, some guy that tweeted me.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Week 9 picks

OK, so that sucked. I went 0-5 last week as Edmonton and Minnesota each won in the other's barn, the Wings pulled off a couple of wins, and the Stealth grabbed a first-place tie in the West. Every team is in action this weekend (and this week, since Toronto and Buffalo play a rare Thursday night game), and the Bandits play twice.

Record: 14-22 (.389)

Game

Comments

Pick

BUF @ TOR Buffalo has a winning record in Toronto, but the Rock are the top team in the league right now. If Cosmo plays like he did two weeks ago this could be a tough one for the Rock. Nick Rose has allowed 12, 13, and 12 goals in their last three games so he might have to take it up a notch, especially with John Tavares returning. Rock
PHI @ BUF Both teams are 4-3, both 2-2 at home. Buffalo has scored two more goals and allowed one more than Philly. Couldn't really get more even. I'll give this one to Buffalo because they're at home. Bandits
EDM @ CAL The Roughnecks have lost two of their last three but this is their first home game in a few weeks. I think Calgary is still the team to beat in the West. Roughnecks
ROC @ COL The loser of this game will have the worst record in the league. The Knighthawks have gone from the Championship game to the basement in one year. Where have we heard that before? And this is after adding Casey Powell and Dan Dawson to their lineup. And yet, I still can't bet against them… Knighthawks
MIN @ WAS Speaking of Championship game to the basement in one year, now the Stealth are trying to go the other direction in one year. I'm not sure they can get all the way there, but in a one-and-done playoff format, anything's possible. Meanwhile, the Swarm have lost their captain for the rest of the season. How will this young team handle the loss of their leader? Stealth

Friday, February 22, 2013

Week 8 picks

2-3 last week. Not bad, but continually having weeks under .500 will not help me make it to .500 overall. I called Edmonton's win over Colorado and Calgary's over Minnesota, but said that Calgary scared me in the Toronto game (they weren't that scary) and that Buffalo would struggle without JT against the awesome firepower of the Knighthawks. Turns out the Bandits didn't need much firepower themselves, and Rochester didn't bring theirs anyway.

Some tough ones this week – will Edmonton continue their hot streak in back-to-back games against the Swarm? Will Philadelphia get some payback for the beating they took from Rochester a couple of weeks ago? What will happen when the worst and second-worst teams face off in Philly?

Record: 14-17 (.452)

Game

Comments

Pick

MIN @ EDM Two underperforming teams face off twice this weekend. Edmonton broke out last weekend with two wins, but Minnesota has yet to do that. This could be the weekend they do, but I think Edmonton will ride their winning streak into their home arena and take the first game. Rush
PHI @ ROC Making picks for the Knighthawks is difficult because there seem to be two Knighthawks teams – the reigning champs from last year who demolished the Wings a couple of weeks ago, and the other team that only scored 6 against Buffalo last weekend and lost their first three. I remember saying this about the Knighthawks last year too. That said, Casey Powell should be back this weekend and the Hawks not going to be happy with last week's game. Knighthawks
CAL @ WAS Despite their loss in Toronto last weekend, the Roughnecks are still a scary good team. But they know that the Stealth are right behind them in the standings and cannot be taken for granted. If I had to choose my least confident pick this week, this would be it. Roughnecks
EDM @ MIN Minnesota's home field advantage is pretty significant – they were 6-2 last year at home and are 2-1 this year (while 0-3 away), so I have to give this one to the Swarm. Swarm
COL @ PHI Colorado's been one of the biggest surprises this year. Sure they've had goaltending issues, but that's not the extent of their problems. Only one team has scored fewer goals/game than the Mammoth (11) and that's the Wings (10.4). Last year, nobody scored more than the Mammoth. They gotta start scoring sometime, don't they? Mammoth

Friday, February 15, 2013

Week 7 picks

After starting the season 2-8, I've gone 10-6 since. Just enough to give me confidence that I might actually know what I'm doing. Therefore, look for a 1-4 week.

Last week I said this about the Philadelphia-Rochester game: "I have a weird feeling about this one" and then picked Philadelphia. Shoulda just taken a Rolaids for that weird feeling. I also got the Toronto/Minnesota game wrong, though in fairness (Warning: cheap excuse ahead) I did say that if Crawford returned I was less sure about my pick, and Crawford did play.

Record: 12-14 (.462)

Game

Comments

Pick

WAS @ EDM Looks like the 2012 Stealth are gone, and the 2010/2011 Stealth are back. They are second in the west, tied for most goals scored. The Rush are what they were last year - struggling to score goals but doing very well in the defense department. No brainer, right? No such thing in this league, buddy. But I'm still betting on Washington. Stealth
CAL @ TOR This will be a fun one. Both teams are stacked offensively and have great goaltenders so I don't know if this will be a blowout one way or the other, a defensive battle, or a 18-17 slugfest. Could be any of them. Toronto is 5-7 at home in 2012 and so far in 2013, and I've heard everyone from owner Jamie Dawick to GM Terry Sanderson to a handful of players talking about how they have to play better at home. I can think of no better challenge than having the Roughnecks come in on a four-game winning streak. The Rock did beat the Roughnecks earlier this year, but they were Dobbie-less and hadn't clicked yet. I hate to pick against my Rock, but Calgary scares me. Roughnecks
EDM @ COL This is kind of backwards to the Washington/Edmonton pick above: Edmonton's defense is doing well and the Mammoth are struggling. The Mammoth is one of only two teams who have scored fewer goals than the Rush. Can they break out and score 15? With Junior on your team, definitely. But they only scored 6 against the Stealth and they've been more focused on their goaltending than their offense recently. Rush in a close one. Rush
CAL @ MIN Minnesota played very well in their game against Toronto last week, though they did give up the lead in the fourth quarter. But they didn't give up entirely, scoring  twice in overtime. One of those goals even counted! And this against the top team in the league. This time they're facing the Roughnecks, the #2 team in the league (and if they beat the Rock on Friday, they'll be the #1 team). Not sure the Swarm can pull that off two weeks in a row. Roughnecks
BUF @ ROC Toughest game of the week to call other than CAL@TOR. The Knighthawks have been too strong over the last week or two while Buffalo has been consistently inconsistent and is still without JT. Knighthawks